Cramer: This market has eerie parallels with 2018. Here's what investors should do
CNBC's Jim Cramer sees parallels between today’s market and the fall of 2018, when rising rates and geopolitical tensions preceded a 20% S&P 500 sell-off.
Jim Cramer Flags 2026 Market as Echoing 2018
CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned investors on Friday that a familiar mix of climbing oil prices, stubborn inflation and higher interest rates is flashing a cautionary signal as the year draws to a close. The “Mad Money” host said the current environment bears an uncanny resemblance to the fall of 2018, noting, “At the end of the day, there are some eerie similarities between the current moment and the fall of 2018.” He added, “I don’t think history will repeat this time, but it might rhyme, and that’s something you need to keep an eye on.”
Eerie Similarities
Cramer highlighted several points of overlap between the two periods. In both 2018 and 2026, equities posted solid gains during the second year of President Donald Trump’s administration while oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher, and inflation stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Each era also featured a newly appointed Fed chair weighing the prospect of additional rate hikes.
Rising Oil and Yields
Today, crude oil is trading close to $100 a barrel and the 10‑year Treasury yield is edging toward the 5 percent mark. Those levels mirror the pressures that helped push the S&P 500 down about 20 percent from its late‑September peak to Christmas Eve in 2018, a slump driven by fears of rising rates and escalating trade tensions with China. The current backdrop places fresh strain on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who is expected to respond to inflation that remains above the central bank’s goal.
Different FED Stance
Cramer stopped short of forecasting another 2018‑style collapse. He argued that Warsh appears less aggressive on inflation than former Chair Jerome Powell was at that time, and that market participants now have a clearer sense of how President Trump reacts when his policies test the markets. “I’m not saying you should just sell everything because history’s going to repeat itself,” Cramer said. “Kevin Warsh was around in 2018; he’s probably not going to repeat Powell’s mistakes.”
Potential Volatility
Instead of urging a wholesale sell‑off, Cramer suggested investors brace for possible turbulence by trimming some of their winning positions and keeping cash on hand. “If things do start getting squirrelly for stocks, don’t freak out,” he advised. “If you’re worried about a repeat of 2018, trim your winners — take something off the table. That’s what we’ve been doing for the Charitable Trust. If you’re not panicking and you have a nice cash balance ready, then you’ll be able to use any weakness to buy high‑quality stocks.”
Investor Guidance
Cramer’s overall message is one of cautious preparation rather than panic. By scaling back exposure to the most over‑extended bets and preserving liquidity, investors can protect themselves from a sharp downturn while staying positioned to capitalize on any market dip that may present buying opportunities in solid companies.
Source: CNBC · 2026-09-11