Here are the 3 big things we're watching in this holiday-shortened trading week
The week will be dominated by inflation data. Plus, Apple's new CEO has his first big test.
Holiday-shortened Trading Week
Labor Day signals the unofficial end of summer, prompting traders and portfolio managers to return from vacations and resume full‑time activity. Historically, this period brings portfolio rebalancing and a rise in trading volume. With the midterm elections looming later in the year, market participants also anticipate heightened volatility as the political calendar approaches November.
Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
The most closely watched items this week are the August producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI), slated for release on Thursday and Friday. These figures arrive ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15‑16 meeting, where the CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently places the probability of a rate hike at roughly 60 percent. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently emphasized that a stable labor market and modest progress toward the 2 percent inflation goal will heavily influence the committee’s stance. He indicated a willingness to keep rates unchanged if August inflation continues to ease, but warned that hotter numbers could prompt a hike. Markets initially responded positively to Waller’s remarks, shifting the odds of a hike to an even split and sparking a rally, though a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report on Friday later tempered that optimism.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the wholesale PPI to rise 0.4 percent month‑over‑month and 5.4 percent year‑over‑year, with core PPI—excluding food and energy—up 0.3 percent and 4.6 percent respectively. Consensus forecasts for the CPI project a 0.36 percent monthly increase and a 3.3 percent annual gain, while core CPI is anticipated to climb 0.2 percent from the prior month and 2.3 percent on a yearly basis. Because producer‑price movements often precede consumer‑price trends, investors will be watching these releases closely to gauge whether the Fed is likely to hold rates steady or move toward a modest increase.
Apple Iphone Launch Event
Apple’s annual hardware showcase, branded “surprise and shine,” is scheduled for Wednesday and marks the first public appearance of new CEO John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on September 1. The agenda is expected to feature the iPhone 18, refreshed Apple Watch models, new AirPods, and possibly Apple’s entry into the foldable‑phone market. Bloomberg reports that a foldable iPhone could carry a price tag well above $2,000, while IDC projects Apple to ship more than 17 million foldable units by 2027, capturing roughly 40 percent of a market currently led by Samsung and Huawei. Analysts will also scrutinize pricing for the standard iPhone 18 lineup, especially given Cook’s reference to a “100‑year flood” of rising memory costs. Last year’s iPhone 17 Pro started at $1,099, $100 higher than its predecessor, and the Pro Max began at $1,199, unchanged from the prior generation. How Apple adjusts pricing—whether through across‑the‑board hikes or selective increases—will be a focal point for investors.
Conference Season Updates
With earnings reports tapering, the conference circuit is heating up. The Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference will feature presentations from Alphabet on Tuesday, Microsoft and Salesforce on Wednesday, and Qnity Electronics, CrowdStrike and Nvidia on Thursday. CrowdStrike also appears at Citigroup’s Global TMT Conference the same day. Wells Fargo’s 21st annual Healthcare Conference will host Cardinal Health and Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday, while Kimberly‑Clark is slated for the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference that morning. Outside the Club’s own earnings, notable names such as Oracle and Adobe will discuss AI demand and the resilience of software stocks, respectively.
Upcoming Week Schedule
The week begins with U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day. Tuesday brings the Alphabet presentation at 1:10 p.m. ET, followed by Apple’s launch event later that day. Wednesday’s agenda includes multiple pre‑market earnings calls and conference appearances by Kimberly‑Clark, Cardinal Health, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft and Salesforce. Thursday features the PPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims, existing‑home‑sales data, and conference talks by Qnity Electronics, CrowdStrike and Nvidia. Friday concludes with the CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET and the University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment survey at 10 a.m. ET.
Investor Focus Areas
Market participants will be parsing the inflation numbers, Apple’s product and pricing strategy, and the insights shared at the various investor conferences. Each of these elements has the potential to shape equity performance and influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy as the week unfolds.
Source: CNBC · 2026-09-07