I'm Buying Consumer Experience Like Delta, Carnival, And Avoiding Discretionary Stocks
Travel demand is robust among boomers, and inflation risks are monitored. Click here to see why consumer experience stocks are constructive.
David H. Lerner, the leader of an investing group, says he is steering clear of consumer‑discretionary companies because their appeal and customer loyalty have weakened, a trend that has left big names such as Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU) lagging behind the market.
Avoiding Discretionary Brands
Lerner argues that the erosion of brand value and repeat purchase rates makes the traditional discretionary segment unattractive for new capital. He notes that the recent performance of the sector has been broadly disappointing, prompting a reallocation of his focus.
Turning to Consumer Experience
His attention has shifted to the consumer‑experience arena, especially travel and entertainment, which he believes will benefit from long‑term growth driven by an increasingly affluent and aging population. The demographic tilt, he says, creates a secular tailwind for services that cater to leisure and mobility.
Asset‑light Targets
Within the experience space, Lerner is eyeing asset‑light operators that own platforms rather than physical infrastructure. He lists Airbnb (ABNB), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE) and Live Nation (LYV) as primary candidates, noting that each is currently trading at a discount of at least 20 % off its 52‑week high.
Asset‑heavy Picks
On the opposite side of the spectrum, he also favors companies that own substantial physical assets. His shortlist includes Alaska Air Group (ALK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Carnival Corporation (CCL) and Viking Holdings (VIK). These stocks, he says, are similarly priced well below their recent peaks, offering entry points that match his valuation criteria.
Market Conditions and Risks
Lerner points to strong travel demand among baby‑boomers as a key driver supporting his thesis. He adds that inflationary pressures remain a factor to watch, but he believes the current environment still favors exposure to experience‑focused businesses. He remains optimistic about the sector while staying alert for additional asset‑light opportunities that may arise.
Positioning Strategy
The investment plan involves taking new positions at the identified discount levels, with the expectation that the combination of demographic trends and resilient demand will lift earnings over the coming years. Lerner stresses that his approach is constructive on the consumer‑experience theme, even as he monitors macro‑economic variables.
Analyst Disclosure
Lerner confirms that he holds a beneficial long position in Delta Air Lines (DAL) through direct stock ownership, options, or related derivatives. He states that the commentary reflects his personal views, that he receives no compensation beyond the platform’s standard arrangements, and that he has no business ties to any of the companies discussed.
Seeking Alpha Disclaimer
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Source: seekingalpha.com · 2026-09-07