Kalshi traders see low likelihood of major crypto bill becoming law this year
The White House has pushed for Congress to pass the Clarity Act, a bill on crypto regulation. Kalshi traders see little chance the bill becomes law this year.
The prospects of a major cryptocurrency bill becoming law by the end of the year appear slim, according to traders on Kalshi. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which gained bipartisan support in the House in July 2025, is scheduled for a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15.
Regulatory Framework
The proposed legislation aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital commodities. Currently, the Securities and Exchange Commission oversees securities, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission handles derivatives, including futures and prediction markets. Although both agencies have issued guidance on crypto assets, there is a lack of explicit boundaries on which agency is responsible for what.
White House Pressure
The White House has been increasing pressure on lawmakers to pass the legislation, with President Donald Trump calling for Congress to pass “a fair version of the Clarity Act” just last week. Despite this, Kalshi traders see a less than 25% chance that the measure will become law by the end of the year. Bitcoin has surged more than 20% in the past week, partly due to Trump’s push for the Clarity Act.
Cftc’s Plan
The chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, and the chairman of the CFTC, Michael Selig, were present at a meeting between Trump and crypto industry leaders last week. At the first CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting last Thursday, Selig stated that the agency would take matters into its own hands if the Clarity Act fails to pass in the Senate. “If Clarity continues to stall because of Democrat obstruction, the CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime for crypto asset markets. We owe it to the American people to do so,” he said.
Uncertainty Remains
The uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act’s passage has significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. With no clear regulatory framework in place, investors and industry leaders are left to navigate a complex and often unclear landscape. As the Senate prepares to vote on the bill, traders and lawmakers alike will be watching closely to see if the legislation can overcome the obstacles ahead.
Industry Impact
The potential impact of the Clarity Act on the cryptocurrency market cannot be overstated. A clear regulatory framework could provide much‑needed stability and legitimacy to the industry, while a failure to pass the bill could lead to continued uncertainty and volatility. As the industry continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the outcome of the Clarity Act will have far‑reaching consequences for the future of cryptocurrency.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Source: CNBC · 2026-08-25