Philippine inflation likely cooled to 6% in August — poll - BusinessWorld Online
Financial experts anticipate that the rate of inflation in the Philippines likely moderated to a five-month low during August. According to a survey of 20 analysts conducted by BusinessWorld, the median prediction for the consumer price index suggests a cooling to 6%, a slight decrease from the 6.2% recorded in July. While this represents a slowdown, the figure remains significantly higher than the 1.5% inflation rate reported during the same month last year. If these projections hold true, August would mark the most tempered price growth since March, when the rate stood at 4.1%.
August Inflation and the Central Bank
Despite the projected cooling, the 6% estimate indicates that inflation has exceeded the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 3% target for six consecutive months. The central bank itself has provided a forecast range for August, suggesting the headline figure will likely land between 5.5% and 6.5%. Officials at the BSP identified volatile food prices, influenced by weather patterns, and persistent oil costs as the primary threats to price stability. Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Angelo B. Taningco noted that the month's inflationary pressure stemmed largely from the rising costs of essential food items like fish, rice, fruits, and vegetables.
Weather Impact on Food Prices
The Philippines faced significant environmental challenges in August, as four separate tropical cyclones moved through the region. These storms intensified the southwest monsoon, leading to severe flooding and heavy rainfall across various provinces. Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion explained that these enhanced rains disrupted distribution networks and logistics. Such supply chain constraints likely forced food prices upward. Rice prices, a staple in the Filipino diet, showed notable increases. During the latter half of August, regular milled rice averaged P49.61 per kilogram, which is a 22.95% jump from P40.35 a year prior and a 0.63% increase from July’s P49.3.
Rice Costs and Supply Constraints
Well-milled rice also saw a price surge, reaching an average of P56.29 per kilogram. This reflects a 19.59% increase compared to the P47.07 price tag from the previous year and a 1.08% rise from the P55.69 recorded in the preceding month. While food costs climbed, some relief may have come from the energy sector. Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist from the University of Asia and the Pacific, suggested that lower utility and oil costs might have helped soften the overall headline inflation figure. However, Harumi Taguchi of S&P Global Market Intelligence pointed out that energy prices remained high enough to spill over into other commodity categories, maintaining inflationary pressure.
Retail Fuel Prices and Energy
Data provided by the Department of Energy highlights a mixed bag for fuel consumers. Gasoline prices saw a reduction of as much as P2.20 per liter in August, while kerosene costs dropped by up to P0.99 per liter. Conversely, diesel prices moved in the opposite direction, increasing by as much as P0.61 per liter. Despite these adjustments, retail fuel prices remained stubbornly above the prewar range of P50 to P60 per liter. Analysts noted that these costs kept transport inflation elevated on a year-on-year basis, contributing to the overall consumer price index remaining above the government's preferred threshold.
Source: bworldonline.com · 2026-08-30