With The Fed Behind Us…
With The Fed Behind Us… By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities With the Fed Behind Us… The 10-year Treasury sold off after the Fed bounced Thursday, only to resume selling, finishing the week just under 5%. Stocks, which seemed to move up and down with Treasuries, decided to move to the...
With The Fed Behind Us…
The 10-year Treasury yield fell after the Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday, ending the week just under a 5% increase. Stocks, which had been moving in lockstep with Treasury yields, began to chart their own direction by Friday’s close. In recent weeks, oil price movements have often mirrored yield changes, but that relationship broke down on Friday.
Market Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical Tensions
A noteworthy development is the T‑Report’s new access to the White House, a level of entry previously seen only by major networks such as CNN. The exact nature of this access remains unclear, and the situation appears unusual.
The ongoing clash between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia raises questions about its place within the broader Iran‑U.S. confrontation. The Houthis, acting as an Iranian proxy, seem to be taking the initiative rather than merely following Tehran’s directives. Their recent strikes have focused on Saudi energy assets, including jet‑fuel facilities at an airport, while deliberately avoiding attacks on U.S. interests.
Assessing the Impact on Energy Infrastructure
Recent hostilities have inflicted serious damage on the pipeline dubbed the “alternative to the Strait.” Early reports suggested a quick repair, but the damage appears more extensive than initially thought, and there is no clear evidence that future strikes can be prevented. This uncertainty calls for pricing in potential disruptions to energy complexes that lie outside the direct U.S.–Iran conflict.
The Saudis’ capacity to defend these assets remains in question, as does whether they will request more direct U.S. involvement. Any escalation that hampers Red Sea traffic could have far‑reaching effects on global markets. Historically, markets have punished concrete events that move energy prices while rewarding hopeful rumors or optimistic narratives.
Focus on Diesel and LNG
The war has shifted attention toward diesel and liquefied natural gas (LNG), commodities that are tighter and more vulnerable to supply‑chain shocks than crude oil. Rising diesel costs threaten a range of sectors, from transportation and agriculture to industrial operations and backup power for data centers.
Discussions about limiting U.S. diesel exports have surfaced, but analysts doubt such measures would meaningfully curb domestic prices. Even with export restrictions, domestic diesel prices are likely to stay close to global benchmarks after accounting for transportation and storage costs. Moreover, export limits could harm U.S. producers and invite legal challenges.
Inflation Pressures and Prospects for a Deal
Higher diesel prices are now a prominent inflationary pressure that policymakers find difficult to tame. Economic sanctions on Iran have effectively constrained trade through the Strait of Hormuz, yet a comprehensive U.S.–Iran agreement remains elusive. While an MOU exists, its unwritten provisions and inconsistent commitments make a decisive victory unlikely at this stage.
Any prospective settlement will be shaped by the evolving news cycle surrounding the conflict. The blockade continues to limit Iran’s trade, but the situation remains fluid, and markets will react swiftly to any new developments.
Source: zerohedge.com · 2026-09-20